BRUSSELS — There are many moving parts to the grain deal Russia and Ukraine reached, which officials didn’t think was even possible until mid-June, not least because the war is continuing and trust between the parties is extremely low.
Here’s what to know about the grain problem, and how it might now be addressed.
Why was Ukrainian grain stuck inside the country?
After Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, it deployed warships along Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. Ukraine mined those waters to deter a Russian naval attack. That meant that the ports used to export Ukrainian grain were blocked for commercial shipping. Russia also pilfered grain stocks, mined grain fields so that they couldn’t be harvested and destroyed grain storage facilities.
How will the operation work?
Ukrainian captains will steer vessels packed with grain out of the ports of Odesa, Yuzhne and Chornomorsk.
A joint command center with officials from Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations will be set up immediately in Istanbul to monitor every movement of the flotillas.
Note: The arrow highlights the general direction of travel; it does not represent an
exact route. • Source: European and other government officials
Note: The arrow highlights the general direction of travel; it does not represent an
exact route. • Source: European and other government officials
The ships will head into Turkish waters, to be inspected by a joint team of Turkish, U.N., Ukrainian and Russian officials, then deliver their cargo to destinations around the world, returning for another inspection by the joint team before heading back to Ukraine.
The agreement specifies the inspection team’s primary responsibility is to check for “unauthorized cargoes and personnel on board vessels inbound to or outbound from the Ukrainian ports.” A key Russian demand was that the returning ships are not carrying weapons to Ukraine.
The parties have agreed that the vessels and the port facilities used for their operations will be safeguarded from hostilities.
The operation is expected to quickly begin shipping five million tons of grains out per month. At that rate, and considering that 2.5 million tons are already being transported by land and river to Ukraine’s friendly neighbors, the stockpiles of nearly 20 million tons should be cleared within three to four months. This will free space in storage facilities for the new harvest already underway in Ukraine.
What are the risks?
No broad cease-fire has been negotiated, so the ships will be traveling through a war zone. Attacks near the ships or at the ports they use could unravel the agreement. Another risk would be a breach of trust or disagreement between inspectors and joint-command officials.
The role of the United…
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