5 reasons the Avs should be concerned heading into Game 6 — and 5 reasons they should

Moments after a devastating overtime loss Wednesday, Nathan MacKinnon described the prospect of going to St. Louis for Game 6 as “a huge challenge” but said he and his teammates are excited for it. The Avalanche still have two chances to get the one win needed to send them to the Western Conference finals, the first of which comes Friday.

None of that makes the team’s collapse in Game 5 more understandable, but MacKinnon believes the Avalanche can learn from it. And they’ll need to or the loss could haunt them for a long time.

“This should make our team a little harder, a little more grittier in these situations,” MacKinnon said.

There were plenty of concerning signs for the Avalanche in Game 5, which saw them blow a 3-0 second period lead and a 4-3 lead with less than a minute left in regulation. But there were also reasons to believe Colorado can still beat the Blues.

Let’s go over five of each.

Reason for concern: Darcy Kuemper’s play

The Avalanche gave up a lot to acquire Kuemper, sending a first-round pick and Conor Timmins to Arizona this summer in exchange for the netminder. And though Kuemper was a bright spot for the Avalanche in the regular season, he had his worst game of the playoffs against St. Louis in Game 5, at least by Evolving-Hockey’s Goals Saved Above Expected metric. He allowed 1.82 more goals than expected, per the site, and coughed up costly rebounds. In a game decided in overtime, that will come back to bite you.

Avalanche coach Jared Bednar acknowledged Kuemper’s tough night, but he said he was far from the only Avalanche player to perform poorly.

“You can group him in with our team,” the coach said. “We weren’t good enough, in the third period especially.”

Kuemper has a negative GSAx in four of five games this series. That’s a problematic trend and one he’ll need to fix if Colorado is going to be a championship team. But it’s not shaking Bednar’s belief that he’s the team’s best chance to win, which makes sense considering his success in the bulk of the season. Asked if he’d consider going with backup Pavel Francouz in Game 6, Bednar responded simply.

“No.”

Reason for optimism: Playoff Nathan MacKinnon

MacKinnon did just about everything in his power for Colorado to come away with a win Wednesday. He had four points, a hat trick and arguably the best goal of the entire postseason. The Blues had limited the Colorado star to three assists in the opening four games of the series, but Game 5 saw him find a groove. St. Louis had no answer. And though MacKinnon was disappointed after Wednesday’s loss, he projected confidence.

“We’ve got to keep our game going and stay aggressive,” he said. “That’s what we’ll do on Friday.”

MacKinnon is up to 82 career playoff points in 59 games. He crossed the 80-point barrier in Game 5, tying Sidney Crosby for the fourth-fewest games needed to reach the mark. Only Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux and Jari Kurri reached 80 points faster.